Are You Illiterate?

Phonics is the common sense method of teaching reading by focusing on the sounds that written letters make. Students first memorize the sounds (phonemes) of each letter or letter group (graphemes). Then, they practice “sounding out” words by breaking them down into these sounds and blending them together to read the word. For example, they learn that “c” makes a /k/ sound, “a” makes an /a/ sound, and “t” makes a /t/ sound. Putting these together, they get the word “cat.”

Starting in the 1980s, a method called “whole language” began to replace phonics in many schools. Whole language focused on recognizing words as whole units rather than sounding them out, encouraging students to guess words based on context. It was popular because it didn’t involve the repetition and drills needed to teach phonics, and it was thought that children would naturally learn rules through exposure.

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Assessing the DIY Generator

On July 8th of this year, Hurricane Beryl swept directly over Houston, leaving two and a half million people without power. The eye passed over my house, and our power and Internet was knocked out for 80 hours, in large part because of trees downed across lines strung along a heavily wooded and somewhat overgrown road. Houstonians love their trees (I do too) and with the weather this close to the gulf, the generator I installed last summer has already been pressed into service five times, including the May 16 derecho that also left a million people in the dark. But Beryl was the first prolonged outage that forced us to really put the new emergency power system to the test, and so I thought it appropriate to post a little report, in case anyone cares to learn from my experience.

I’ve posted before about the generator installation and the isolated emergency circuits through which it connects to the house. The short version is, I didn’t want to spend the cost of a small car on a whole-house generator, but I didn’t want to leave my family with a complex, potentially hazardous system when I’m not around. So no hauling a generator out onto the patio and running heavy cabling through a window, and no connection through the house breaker box and confusing cutover and circuit allocation. The generator plugs into the house as if it were an RV, and has its own circuits and breakers. The family only has to plug it in, fuel it, start it, and make use of the for red emergency power outlets in the house.

Observations

So how does it work in practice? Very well. It takes only a few minutes to start up, even in the midst of a storm, and just a few minutes inside to switch over the frig, internet, and my office computer if so desired. What takes longer, and what Beryl gave us the first test of, is pulling the portable AC out of storage and creating a single-room family “storm home” around it. I’ll leave the details of that to the imagination and share the lessons and observations:

  • First, always keep gasoline on hand. I have 17.5 gallons worth of gas can storage, but I’d gotten lax and let my stores dwindle to only 2.5 gallons in one can plus about that much in the generator. That was dumb. It should come as no surprise that after a hurricane passes over your city, you can expect essentially all gas stations to be out of operation for two days. They might be open, but most are not pumping gas, and those that are are not taking credit cards. So…
    • Keep on hand enough gasoline to run the generator for at least 48 hours. Make sure you have at least one can you can use to safely dump unused gasoline into a car, because you’ll want to keep stores gas on a rotation so that it doesn’t get too old, break down, absorbe moisture, etc. and the obvious way to do this is to keep one or two cans full of gas that can be burned in a car and replaced every few months, only filling any additional cans before a forecast storm—just get off your butt and go fill them when the time comes!
  • Second, you probably don’t need as much power as you may thin. Having a working frig, one lamp, and one fan makes a HUGE difference. Add in a little electronic entertainment and the odd small appliance, and days of sweltering misery have become a minor inconvenience. You might need the fan to sleep, and you might not be as comfy as you’d like, but you’ll be fine.
  • My little generator can produce 3,500 watts continuously or 4,000 peak, and it’s an inverter generator completely safe for electronics. It has an economy mode that causes it to throttle to meet the load.
    • Powering only the refrigerator, the home Internet equipment, my office computer, and a couple of fans and lights, it can run 12-15 hours on 2.5 gallons of gasoline.
    • Powering all this, plus a small portable room AC, the TV and disk player and assorted video games, the same fuel only lasted 8-10 hours.
  • We put the AC in our family room, open to the kitchen and surrounded by old, leaky windows and ran it in its default mode with the thermostat set to 78. It held that temperature over night, and with daytime temperatures in the upper 90’s, kept the room below 81 and the humidity level comfortable at all times.
  • We did not activate the AC’s “turbo mode” that basically makes it just run flat out all the time and cool at much as it can. We could have, and I did test is after the mains came back on and the generator seemed to have no problem with it, but it would have burned through a lot more gasoline.
  • That’s important, because as some of my coworkers learned the hard way, larger generators can be impractical or even impossible to keep fueled during a major area-wide recovery. With the AC running, we were comfortable and using a hair over 5 gallons of gas per day, which after the first two days was easily replaced and could have been maintained indefinitely.
  • The AC extracted almost exactly 10 gallons of water per day from the air. If we had to, we could have run it through a filter for drinking.
  • I did run into a problem during the previous storm that I finally figured out this time: like most modern generators, this one have a fuel tank vent designed to equalize the air pressure inside the tank. Mine doesn’t work, so as the generator burns gasoline, the air pressure inside the tank can drop enough to kill the engine. Leaving the gas can loose solved the problem, but the valve need to be replaced. I’m not 100% certain there is really a good reason to have that valve instead of the little breath hole that small engine gas caps had for a century, but whatever–technology marches on, right?

 

Lessons

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Historic Histrionics

On June 5th, 2024, Boeing’s new Starliner crew capsule blasted into space — fours years behind Space-X and at twice the cost.

In this heady age of space commercialism, “historic” space firsts have come so frequently, commentators seems to have become so glossy-eyed as to forget what the word means, and you can hardly find a blog post that doesn’t describe it as “historic.”

Balderdash.

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Basic Rules of Book Design

Basic rules of book design:

  • Don’t end a page with the first line of a new paragraph.
  • Don’t begin a page with the last line of a paragraph.
  • Don’t begin or end a page with a line that ends in a hyphen.
  • Don’t end a page with a one-word line.
  • Don’t use more than two hyphenations in a row on two consecutive lines (and if you can at all help it, don’t use more than one in a row).
  • When you start a chapter on a recto page and the facing verso page is blank, do not put a header or a page number on the blank verso page.
  • Front matter of a book is numbered with Roman numbers. The first page of the first chapter is page 1.
  • Table of Contents pages do not get page numbers or headers.

My DIY Generator

I never know whether to blog about my DIY projects, but this one got a big reaction when I mentioned it online, so here goes.

As I mentioned in an earlier post covering the wiring, we have a lot of power outages in Texas which, between ice, heat, hurricanes, and the buried utilities in my neighborhood, are inconveniently long and frequent. So….more and more folks ’round these parts are getting backup generators, but I don’t want to pay the cost of a new car for a whole-house natural gas backup system I don’t really need, hope never to use, and will need a maintenance contract to keep ready in case I do. I really only need enough juice to keep one room habitable, the food cold, and the wifi running. A simple portable generator can do that, and for a WHOLE lot less money, I just need it set up and standing by when I need it–no dragging it out to the yard, erecting a rain shield, and trying to feed heavy gauge power cords in through the windows.

Whole house generators are usually connected to a home’s mains wiring through an automatic cutoff switch. I didn’t do that because it’s expensive, requires a licensed professional, and is not very practical for a generator barely powerful enough to power one of the twenty circuits in the house. Instead, I wired up a completely separate emergency power system with outlets behind the frig, in the living room, in the office, and in the bedroom where the wifi lives. It’s much easier for the family to understand that the generator can run one portable AC or heater, the frig, and a few lights and computers, when plugged into the emergency outlets.

I documented the electrical work here. This post is about the generator.

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Florida Girl Causes Global Ice Cream Crisis

I was asked by to moderate “The ArmadilloCon Story Game” as part of ArmadilloCon 2023, a spec-fic literary convention in which at least two panels were concerned with AI, so I decided to employ AI to facilitate the Mad Lib style brainstorming of this classic con game:

First, I asked ChatGPT for a selection of Mad Lib-style prompts suitable for the game and a science fictional story. Then I asked the audience for an Adjective, a superpower, a weakness, and the name of a planet.

Patrice Sarath and Michelle Muenzler brainstormed with input from the audience, while I moderated, transcribed, and interacted with the AI “Sudowrite” which works by accepting starting text, then suggesting two prose alternatives, one of which was chosen before inserting more prose and requesting more generates ideas and so on until the story is done. Here is what we came up with AI inspiration and human brainstorming and editorial clean up in the span of about 40 minutes…

Beginning prompt: Stupid aliens from the planet Garbanzo have invaded Earth. They possess incredible invisibility abilities that challenge humanity’s dog allergies. Jennifer and her dog, Nefertiti discover the evidence of the alien’s interference when Jennifer starts sneezing and some unseen someone says “bless you.”

1982, January 5th:

Jennifer rubbed her nose, trying to stifle another sneeze. “Nefertiti, did you hear that?” she whispered to her dog. “Someone said bless you, but I don’t see anyone here.”

Nefertiti’s ears perked up, and she began to sniff the air. Jennifer watched as her dog’s nose twitched, trying to pick up any scent of the invisible interloper.

Suddenly, Jennifer felt a tickle in her throat, and she let out a series of violent sneezes. “Achoo! Achoo! Achoo!”

As she wiped her nose with a tissue, Jennifer noticed a small, shimmering object floating in the air. The object seemed to be reflecting the light in the room, making it slightly visible to the naked eye.

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Real Stories of the United States Space Force

For months, I’ve been fairly quite. I lot has been going on. Cheifly, I’ve been working on an anthology for Baen Books. It’s been a LOT of work, far more than I’d anticipated, not just writing and reading slush and editing, but tracking down information and conducting interviews and looking up quotes for epigraphs, and simple logistics–keeping track of invited authors, contracts, bios, and a thousand little details. But I’m pretty proud of the results. It’s in Baen’s capable hands. I think you’ll like it.

Baen Book’s new anthology, Real Stories of the United States Space Force, is a collection of science fiction stories and fact articles illustrating the real-world need for space defense and dispelling misconceptions about the nation’s newest military service branch.

  • 13 Award-winning authors!

  • 16 Original stories!

  • 5 Fascinating articles!

  • Foreword by “Star Wars” (SDI) Chief Engineer of Space Based Laser, William F. Otto.

  • Contributions by nationally syndicated editorial cartoonists, Dave Granlund and Phil Hands.

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Zeroing in

Science is like an archer getting closer to the target with practice—and an ever-improving view of the remaining discrepancy. That the aim varies as it zeroes in does not make it wrong along the way—and only a fool would think so.

Estimates for the age of the Earth have evolved over time as new scientific methods have been developed and as new data has been collected.

  • From the 1770s to the 1890s, Earth’s age could only be guessed at (scientifically speaking) based on a crude understanding of natural processes such as geolologic change, planetary cooling, and ocean salinity balance, so estimates ranged wildly from a few million to a few billion years.
  • 1905: The physicist Ernest Rutherford suggested that the age of the Earth could be estimated by measuring the amount of lead in uranium minerals. His estimate was around 500 million years, but was only a swag intended to prod geologists into the atomic age.
  • 1920s: The geologist Arthur Holmes used the radioactive decay of lead and uranium to estimate that the Earth was around 4.6 billion years old. This estimate is still widely accepted today, although the margin of error has been refined over time.
  • 1990s: The development of new radiometric dating techniques, such as uranium-lead dating and samarium-neodymium dating, allowed scientists to estimate the age of the Earth with greater precision. These methods have estimated the age of the Earth to be around 4.54 billion years old, with a margin of error of around 1%.

 

  • 1917-1922: The first estimate of the age of the universe came from astronomer Georges Lemaître, who used Einstein’s theory of general relativity to suggest that the universe was around 10 billion years old. This estimate was based on assumptions about the expansion rate of the universe and the amount of matter it contained, but it did not have a margin of error.
  • 1920s-1930s: Other astronomers, such as Arthur Eddington and Edwin Hubble, proposed different estimates of the age of the universe, ranging from a few hundred million years to several billion years. These estimates were based on observations of the Hubble constant, the rate of expansion of the universe, and the ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy.
  • 1940s-1950s: With the discovery of nuclear reactions and the ability to measure isotopes, physicists were able to estimate the age of the universe more precisely. In the late 1940s, physicist George Gamow and his colleagues suggested an age of around 2 billion years based on calculations of the age of the oldest rocks on Earth. By the early 1950s, improved measurements of the Hubble constant led to estimates of 10-20 billion years with a margin of error of about 25%.
  • 1960s-1970s: The discovery of cosmic microwave background radiation in 1965 provided strong evidence for the Big Bang theory and allowed scientists to refine their estimates of the age of the universe. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, estimates ranged from 10-20 billion years with a margin of error of about 10%.
  • 1980s-1990s: With more precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation, estimates of the age of the universe improved further. By the 1990s, estimates were in the range of 13-15 billion years with a margin of error of about 1-2%.
  • 2000s-present: Advances in technology and new observations, such as measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and the Planck satellite, have allowed scientists to refine their estimates even further. Current estimates are in the range of 13.7-13.8 billion years with a margin of error of about 0.1-0.2%.

A Changing of the Guard

Today I spent the day with my new boss, a woman I first met near the start of my IT career when she, then a newly-hired contractor, was appointed business liaison for what turned out to be a highly successful software application I was designing. At lunchtime, we got to chatting and our conversation turned to my boss way back then, Frank, among the most brilliant, capable, and just plain decent human beings I have ever had the pleasure to know.

I will not waste your time detailing all the kind things Frank did for me or taught me over my years under his wing, except that a lot of it was not strictly work-related, the sort of thing my father might have impressed on me had my parents not divorced and my father had not been away most of the time on Air Force duty and, frankly, had been a better man.

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